Lithium batteries: the core engine of the energy revolution, analysis of technology iteration and industrial structure

From the battery life guarantee of smartphones to the power core of new energy vehicles, from household energy storage power stations to grid peak regulation and energy replenishment, lithium batteries have been deeply integrated into every corner of production and life in modern society. As a key support for the new energy revolution, this technology has achieved a threefold jump in energy density and an 85% reduction in costs in the past few decades, driving the transformation of the global energy structure towards cleanliness and electrification. This article will comprehensively analyze the development logic and value of the times of lithium batteries from the five dimensions of core principles, type characteristics, technical bottlenecks, industrial structure and future trends.
1. Core structure and working principle: the “migration game” of lithium ions

Lithium batteries are essentially a controllable electrochemical energy conversion system, consisting of four core components: positive electrode, negative electrode, electrolyte, and separator. It is like a closely coordinated "energy factory" that achieves reversible conversion of electrical energy and chemical energy through the directional migration of lithium ions.

As the "source" of energy output, the positive electrode directly determines the energy density and safety of the battery. The mainstream materials are divided into two categories: ternary lithium (NCM/NCA) and lithium iron phosphate (LFP). Because ternary lithium batteries contain precious metals such as nickel and cobalt, the energy density can reach 200-300Wh/kg, which is suitable for high battery life needs; lithium iron phosphate batteries do not contain precious metals, have a thermal decomposition temperature of over 500°C, and a cycle life of up to 3,500 times, which is more advantageous in terms of safety and cost control. The negative electrode is responsible for the adsorption and storage functions of lithium ions. Currently, graphite is the mainstream. Silicon-based negative electrodes (theoretical capacity is 10 times that of graphite) are gradually commercialized. Lithium metal negative electrodes are the core direction of the solid-state battery era and are expected to push the energy density to more than 500Wh/kg.

The electrolyte is a "highway" for lithium ions. It is made of a mixture of lithium salts and organic solvents. Its ionic conductivity directly affects the battery's charge and discharge efficiency. Although the liquid electrolyte has excellent conductivity, its flammability has become a safety hazard. The replacement of solid electrolytes is the key to technological breakthroughs. As a "safety firewall", the separator is mostly a polyethylene or polypropylene porous film. Its core function is to isolate the positive and negative electrodes and allow lithium ions to pass through. Its pore size uniformity and mechanical strength directly determine the battery's short-circuit resistance.

The essence of the charging and discharging process is the round-trip migration of lithium ions: During charging, lithium ions are detached from the positive electrode, migrate to the negative electrode through the electrolyte and separator, and are adsorbed. The electrons form a loop through the external circuit, and an SEI protective film is formed to protect the negative electrode. During discharge, lithium ions are deintercalated from the negative electrode and returned to the positive electrode, releasing energy to drive external equipment to operate, completing the conversion of chemical energy into electrical energy.

2. Mainstream types and application scenarios: energy solutions adapted on demand

According to the differences in cathode materials, lithium batteries form six mainstream types, each of which adapts to different scenarios based on its performance characteristics and builds a diversified application ecosystem. In 2025, the global lithium battery market will exceed 3 trillion yuan, of which power batteries account for more than 60%, consumer electronic batteries account for 25%, and energy storage batteries have become the fastest-growing segment.

- Lithium iron phosphate battery (LFP): With the core advantages of high safety, long life and low cost, the energy density is 150-200Wh/kg. It is widely used in new energy commercial vehicles, energy storage systems, power tools and other scenarios. It is the first choice for household energy storage and commercial electric vehicles.

- Nickel-cobalt-manganese ternary lithium battery (NMC): The energy density is balanced and adjustable. The energy density of high-nickel models (such as NMC811) can reach 300Wh/kg. It is suitable for new energy passenger cars, drones and other scenarios that require high endurance. It is the mainstream configuration of current high-end electric vehicles.

- Nickel-cobalt-aluminum ternary lithium battery (NCA): Outstanding energy density and power performance, suitable for high-end electric vehicles such as Tesla and aerospace fields, but poor thermal stability, high cost, and relatively limited market application scope.

- Lithium cobalt oxide battery (LCO): mature technology but insufficient safety and short cycle life (500-1000 times). It once dominated the early consumer electronics market and has now been gradually replaced by ternary lithium batteries.

- Lithium manganese oxide battery (LMO): low cost, excellent fast charging performance, but short life at high temperatures and low energy density. It is mainly used in scenarios with low performance requirements such as electric bicycles and low-end electric vehicles.

- Lithium titanate battery (LTO): has extremely long cycle life (more than 10,000 times), strong fast charging capability, and excellent low-temperature performance. It is suitable for frequent charging and discharging scenarios such as electric buses and industrial energy storage. However, its energy density of 70-100Wh/kg limits large-scale promotion.

3. Technical bottleneck: The road to cracking the “Impossible Triangle”

Although lithium battery technology has become increasingly mature, the "impossible triangle" of energy density, safety, and cost is still the core constraint on industry development, and the three major technical bottlenecks need to be broken through.

The increase in energy density encounters theoretical limits. The current energy density of lithium iron phosphate batteries is less than 200Wh/kg. Although ternary lithium batteries reach 200-300Wh/kg, they are still far from the ideal needs of vehicle and energy storage scenarios. Although the lithium metal anode can increase the theoretical energy density to more than 500Wh/kg, its dendrite growth problem can easily pierce the separator and cause short circuits, which has not yet been fundamentally solved. The energy density of solid-state battery laboratory samples has reached 350Wh/kg, but problems such as poor interface stability and short cycle life have delayed the commercialization process.

Fast charging technology is limited by physical characteristics. The vision of "charging in 5 minutes and driving range of 1,000 kilometers" is limited by the migration speed of lithium ions. The liquid electrolyte is easy to decompose during high-rate charging. The contact resistance between the current collector and the active material also restricts the energy transfer efficiency. Improving the electrode microstructure, developing quasi-solid electrolytes, and optimizing the thermal management system have become the three key paths to break through the fast charging bottleneck.

Security conflicts are difficult to eradicate. The risk of thermal runaway is still the core hidden danger of lithium batteries. There is a natural conflict between high energy density and safety - high nickel cathodes have poor thermal stability, and the flammable characteristics of liquid electrolytes cannot be completely eliminated. Although the battery management system (BMS) can monitor the status in real time, it cannot fundamentally solve the instability of the internal chemical system. All-solid-state batteries are regarded as the ultimate solution to safety problems due to the elimination of liquid electrolytes, but they still require 3-5 years of technical research.

4. Industrial Structure: Iteration and Reconstruction under China’s Leadership

China has become the core hub of the global lithium battery industry, building a complete industrial chain system from raw material supply to battery manufacturing and terminal applications. The industry is entering a new stage of "value return" and "anti-involution" from a period of scale expansion.

The industrial chain has a clear structure and obvious differentiation among various links. The upstream focuses on key minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel, and graphite, as well as the four major materials of positive and negative electrodes, electrolytes, and separators. In 2026, the supply and demand of materials such as lithium hexafluorophosphate and separators will shift to a tight balance, and prices will rebound. The price center of battery-grade lithium carbonate will stabilize at more than 120,000 yuan/ton. The midstream is dominated by battery cell manufacturing and integration. Orders from leading companies such as CATL and BYD are concentrated, and the production capacity of small and medium-sized enterprises is idle. "The leaders are rushing for production capacity, and small and medium-sized enterprises are busy with foundries" has become a new phenomenon in the industry. The downstream covers the three core areas of new energy vehicles, energy storage, and consumer electronics. Among them, the growth rate of energy storage demand exceeds that of power batteries, becoming the industry's strongest growth engine. It is expected that China's total lithium battery shipments will increase by nearly 30% year-on-year in 2026, exceeding 2.3TWh.

Industry competition presents two major trends: First, concentration continues to increase, and technical barriers and scale effects promote the concentration of resources towards leading companies; second, overseas expansion is accelerating. In response to overseas trade policies, Chinese companies have deployed overseas production bases in Europe and Southeast Asia to seize global market share. At the same time, supply chain security and green development have become important issues. The risk of high dependence on foreign countries for lithium resources needs to be resolved urgently. The construction of a battery recycling and tiered utilization system has also become a key support for the sustainable development of the industry.

5. Future trends: the next generation revolution led by solid-state batteries

Lithium battery technology is in a critical period of parallel exploration of multiple routes. The commercialization of semi-solid-state batteries is imminent, and the inflection point of all-solid-state battery industrialization is approaching. Many innovative directions are expected to break the existing technical bottlenecks.

Solid-state batteries have become the core track. It replaces liquid electrolyte with solid electrolyte to solve the safety problem from the root. It is also compatible with lithium metal anode and the energy density is expected to exceed 400-500Wh/kg. At present, sulfide solid electrolytes have become the focus of research for domestic and foreign companies due to their high ionic conductivity. Toyota, Huawei, and CATL have all deployed related technologies. In 2025, the "All-Solid-State Battery Determination Method" standard will be released to standardize the development of the industry; the "Plastic Rich Inorganic SEI" technology developed by the Tsinghua University team can achieve stable cycling at low temperatures, and the University of Science and Technology of China team has reduced the external pressure required for solid-state batteries to 5 MPa, significantly reducing the difficulty of commercialization. It is expected that all-solid-state batteries will usher in an industrialization turning point in 2026-2027.

Collaborative innovation through multiple technology paths. Nanotechnology transformation of materials can increase ion conduction rates, self-healing electrode materials can extend cycle life, and intelligent early warning systems can predict thermal runaway in advance. As a transitional solution, semi-solid-state batteries have begun to be used in small-scale commercial applications to achieve a balance between energy density and cost. At the same time, new systems such as lithium-sulfur batteries and lithium-air batteries are in the research and development stage. The theoretical energy density of lithium-sulfur batteries reaches 2600Wh/kg. If the cycle life bottleneck can be broken, it is expected to be applied in high-end scenarios such as drones.

Technological breakthroughs will reshape the energy landscape. When all-solid-state batteries are applied on a large scale, the range of new energy vehicles is expected to exceed 1,200 kilometers, completely solving range anxiety; in the field of energy storage, high-energy-density, high-security lithium batteries will promote the development of grid energy storage in a distributed and high-density direction, providing support for the consumption of renewable energy. In the future, as the "Impossible Triangle" is gradually solved, lithium batteries will play a more central role in the energy revolution and accelerate the realization of the global carbon neutrality goal.

From basic research and development in the laboratory to large-scale application in the industry, every technological iteration of lithium batteries is pushing mankind towards a clean and efficient energy era. Although it still faces many challenges, with the combined efforts of material innovation, process optimization and industrial collaboration, this core technology will surely break through the existing boundaries and open up a broader application landscape.